Is Apple the Next Nokia?

Dear Reader,

The other day, I accidentally spilled some water on my iPhone. So I asked Siri if my iPhone was waterproof.

This was Siri’s response:

Not the answer I was looking for. I could have just looked up that information myself.

Later, I asked Siri: “What was the price of Tesla’s stock when it IPO’d?”

This was Siri’s response:

Again, not the answer I was looking for.

And I’m sure some people would argue that this is my fault. I didn’t get the responses I wanted because I didn’t ask the right questions in the right way.

But that’s missing the point.

For years, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has been the gold standard of innovation.

The Apple Macintosh redefined the PC, the iPhone revolutionized smartphones and the Apple Watch turned wearables into a must-have accessory.

But today it seems like Apple is losing its edge — especially when it comes to artificial intelligence.

If I have to carefully prompt engineer questions for Siri, then it’s worthless to me.

Especially while competitors like Google and Microsoft are pushing the frontiers of AI and speech recognition.

Apple’s AI strategy has been a mess of delays, underwhelming features and missed opportunities.

And if the company continues on this path, then I believe it could suffer the same fate as Nokia.

In other words, Apple could become another once-dominant tech giant that failed to adapt and fell into irrelevance.

What Is Apple’s AI Strategy?

Apple Intelligence, the company’s long-awaited AI initiative, was supposed to usher in a new era of smart devices.

Apple showed off a number of Apple Intelligence capabilities during its Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June 2024 and initially advertised the service with a TV spot showing a full version of the software.

That ad has since been pulled.

Apple also said it would roll out Apple Intelligence throughout the remainder of 2024 and 2025.

And while the company has released some features, the rollout has been anything but smooth.

The promised “smarter” Siri? Delayed.

AI-powered iPhone features? Barely making an impact.

Apple has released AI-assisted writing tools, photo editing tools and notification summaries. But those features aren’t selling new iPhones.

Frankly, Apple Intelligence doesn’t offer anything that Apple’s competitors aren’t already doing better.

Why should I care that Siri can send queries to ChatGPT when I can just use OpenAI’s app?

And in China, one of Apple’s most important markets, Apple Intelligence isn’t even available yet.

This gives companies like Xiaomi and Huawei an opening to capture Chinese market share. And if that happens, Apple is at risk of never gaining it back.

Meanwhile, Google and Samsung, leveraging Google’s Gemini AI, continue to enhance their products with increasingly sophisticated AI tools.

That’s why Apple’s lack of forward momentum with AI is more than just a misstep.

It has real consequences.

According to analysts, around 50% of iPhone owners who didn’t upgrade to the iPhone 16 chose not to do so due to Apple Intelligence delays.

Apple’s failure to deliver a compelling AI experience threatens not only to erode its competitive advantage…

It paints a concerning picture for Apple’s future.

Because we’ve already seen how badly this can turn out…

The Nokia Parallel: A Cautionary Tale

If Apple’s struggles with AI seem like a short-term problem, history tells us otherwise.

Consider Nokia, the undisputed king of mobile phones in the early 2000s.

At its peak, Nokia controlled 50% of the global mobile phone market. But by 2013, that share had plummeted to just 3%.

What happened?

Nokia failed to recognize the importance of software ecosystems.

While Apple and Google built intuitive, app-rich smartphone platforms, Nokia clung to its outdated Symbian operating system.

And by the time Nokia tried to pivot, it was too late.

History is littered with companies like Nokia. Blockbuster and Polaroid immediately come to mind.

All three of these companies were industry leaders that forgot one of the most important lessons of business.

Failing to innovate can be fatal.

And Apple isn’t immune to this either. The company’s walled garden approach — once a strength — now risks becoming a liability.

Apple’s competitors keep integrating AI into their ecosystems, yet Apple is struggling to deliver even simple AI features.

Of course, Apple has its defenders. A recent CNN opinion piece suggests that AI’s biggest problem isn’t Apple’s execution but in the AI technology itself.

And I agree that this argument holds some merit.

Many AI features, even from Google and Microsoft, are still experimental. And Apple has built its brand on reliability.

What’s more, Apple’s success has always been about making complex technology seamless and intuitive. But AI can be unpredictable and prone to errors.

So I understand that the company might simply be waiting for AI to mature before fully integrating it into its products.

But there’s a fatal problem with this line of reasoning…

Time isn’t on Apple’s side.

Consumers expect AI-powered devices now, and Apple’s delays are driving users to its competitors.

Google’s AI-powered search, Samsung’s AI-driven smartphone features and Microsoft’s Copilot all have their faults, but they are defining how users interact with AI technology today.

So Apple’s hesitancy might be strategic…

Heck, CEO Tim Cook might have your best interests in mind when it comes to the intersection of AI and privacy.

But this hesitancy also puts Apple at risk of falling behind in a race that it can’t afford to lose.

Here’s My Take

The idea that Apple is losing its edge has been weighing on my mind for a while now. Especially on the heels of its failed Vision Pro headset.

But last Thursday, Apple’s stock plunged 9%…

And as of this morning, AAPL shares are down nearly 25% off their 2025 high.

To me, it’s a sign of a company in crisis.

Apple makes nearly all of its iPhones, iPads and Macs overseas. That means it’s going to be hit especially hard by Trump’s new tariffs.

Some experts suggest that these tariffs will drive up the price of iPhones from $1,000 to $3,500.

If that happens, it could not only be a blow to Apple’s AI progress…

It could kill the company’s most popular product. And iPhone sales account for three-quarters of the company’s nearly $400 billion in annual revenue.

Of course, Apple has been in trouble before.

When Steve Jobs returned in the late ’90s, the company was on the brink of collapse. But the iPod, iPhone and iPad reignited Apple’s dominance.

More recently, Apple’s transition to its own M-series chips proved that it can still out-innovate the competition when it wants to.

But AI is the defining technology of the next decade. And if Apple doesn’t course correct soon, it risks becoming the next Nokia…

Just another cautionary tale in tech history.

But AAPL isn’t the only stock in a freefall today.

That’s why I’m going live this week with an urgent event I’m calling Panic 2025.

Join me this Wednesday, April 9 at 1 p.m. ET and I’ll show you how to navigate the current stock market panic with the help of a genius software architect.

During this event, we’ll show you how you could walk away from all this recent turmoil with the biggest gains of your life.

Click here now to reserve your spot.

Regards,

Ian King
Chief Strategist, Banyan Hill Publishing

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